Vizient projects behavioral health outpatient volumes to grow 22% over the next decade, more than seven times the 3% increase predicted by population trends alone, according to the company’s 2026 Impact of Change forecast.
Vizient’s forecast models 10-year demand projections using disease-based and MS-DRG-based analyses spanning more than 27,000 Clinical Alignment and Resource Effectiveness (CARE) group combinations. The model draws on national data, clinical trials, institutional data, utilization trends, local case mix and outcomes data, then layers in six impact factors — population, policy, economy and consumerism, epidemiology and sociocultural changes, innovation and technology, and systems of CARE — to project inpatient discharges and outpatient volumes through 2036.
Here are five things behavioral health leaders should know from the report:
- Adult inpatient demand outpaces population projections. Vizient projects adult behavioral health inpatient service line growth of 7% by 2036, more than double the 3% growth predicted by a population-based forecast alone.
- Pediatric inpatient demand defies the population trend entirely. Vizient projects pediatric behavioral health inpatient service line growth of 2% by 2036, while a population-based forecast predicts a 3% decline.
- Adult outpatient growth is the standout figure. Vizient projects adult behavioral health outpatient volumes to grow 22% by 2036, compared with 3% under a population-based forecast.
- Pediatric outpatient demand also outpaces population trends. Vizient projects pediatric behavioral health outpatient volumes to grow 17% by 2036, while a population-based forecast predicts a 4% decline.
- Two specific drivers explain the outsized demand. Vizient attributes behavioral health’s growth beyond population trends to rising prevalence and acuity, plus growing adoption of community-based, intermediate and virtual care models.
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