Global warming of 1 to 6 degrees Celsius could generate up to $57 billion in annual anxiety-related costs and $47 billion tied to depression, according to a study published Feb. 20 in The Lancet Planetary Health.
The study, conducted by researchers at consulting firm ICF, George Washington University in Washington, D.C., and the College of Wooster (Ohio) combined epidemiologically derived exposure-response relationships with climate model projections to estimate mental health impacts in the present day (2022) and at the end of the century (2095). Data from the CDC’s Behavioral Risk Factor Surveillance System informed baseline symptom-day incidence and helped estimate sex- and age-specific mental health “difficult day” allocation ratios for anxiety and depression.
Here are four things to know:
- Assuming present-day sociodemographics, warming at that level would result in 401 million to 1.8 billion excess annual self-reported anxiety symptom-days and 329 million to 1.4 billion excess annual depression symptom-days among adults — a 5% to 23% increase from baseline, the study found.
- Researchers estimated the corresponding economic burden at $13 billion to $57 billion annually for anxiety and $11 billion to $47 billion for depression, measured in 2023 U.S. dollars and undiscounted.
- On average, warming could add two to seven anxiety symptom-days per person-year, with significantly higher burdens among low-income populations — four to 15 anxiety days and three to 14 depression days per person-year.
- Appalachia is projected to be affected most, the study found. Using projected 2095 sociodemographics led to projected increase in estimated symptom days by almost 30% and monetized impacts by nearly 90%.
