Acadia cuts 2025 earnings forecast by $49M

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Franklin, Tenn.-based Acadia Healthcare revised its 2025 financial guidance following higher-than-expected professional and general liability expenses. 

The health system now expects full-year 2025 adjusted EBITDA to be between $601 million and $611 million, down from its prior range of $650 million to $660 million, according to a Dec. 2 news release. Adjusted earnings per share are projected at $1.94 to $2.04, compared to earlier guidance of $2.35 to $2.45.

Acadia attributed the revisions to an incremental $49 million in PLGL expenses identified in a final third-party actuarial review. Total PLGL expenses for 2025 are projected at approximately $116 million, up from $54 million in 2024.

Key drivers include higher expected settlement costs for legacy claims, a 168% increase in claim frequency for the 2025 policy year, elevated incurrent-but-not-reported reserves and less favorable reinsurance terms. 

Acadia’s net PLGL liability is expected to rise from $78 million at year-end 2024 to between $145 million and $165 million at year-end 2025. For 2026, PLGL expenses are projected to be between $100 million and $110 million, the release said. 

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