The U.S. could face a steep decline in its adult psychiatry workforce over the next decade, with workforce adequacy projected to fall to 42.8% by 2037 as psychiatrist supply shrinks and demand rises, according to a study published May 5 in Psychiatry Online.
For this cross-sectional study, researchers from the Medical University of South Carolina in Charleston evaluated data from the Health Workforce Simulation Model, developed by the Health Resources and Services Administration, to project the supply, demand and adequacy of psychiatrists serving adults (PSAs) from 2024 through 2037. They analyzed full-time equivalent physician supply and demand under status quo and improved access scenarios.
Here are four things to know:
- Supply is projected to decline while demand rises. The supply of psychiatrists serving adults is projected to decrease 12.3%, from 37,260 full-time equivalent physicians in 2024 to 32,660 in 2037. During the same period, demand is projected to increase 43.7% under the status quo scenario and 47.4% under an improved access scenario.
- Workforce shortages are expected to worsen significantly. Workforce adequacy is projected to decline from 70.2% to 42.8% under the status quo scenario and from 49.3% to 29.3% under an improved access scenario by 2037.
- Rural communities are projected to remain at the greatest disadvantage. By 2037, workforce adequacy is projected to be 20.9% in nonmetropolitan areas, compared with 45% in metropolitan areas. Regionally, the Midwest and South are expected to have the lowest workforce adequacy, at 36.3% and 25.5%, respectively. The Northeast is projected to have the highest workforce adequacy at 62.9%.
- Three states are projected to face the most severe shortages. In 2024, the states with the lowest PSA workforce adequacy were North Dakota at 50%, New Mexico at 61.9% and Oklahoma at 62.7%. By 2037, the states with the lowest projected psychiatrist workforce adequacy were Idaho at 47.8%, Nevada at 48.8% and Alaska at 50%.
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